Posted 4/14/2024, 10:45:30 AM
Overstated Oil Supply Growth Leads to Tighter Market and Higher 2025 Price Forecast
- OPEC+ production cuts are mostly voluntary and not materializing, leading to tighter supplies than expected
- US oil production growth is overstated due to methodology changes; growth rate is likely around 50% lower
- Tighter supplies in 2024 will lead market participants to realize OPEC+ cuts never materialized
- Lower US oil production growth means non-OPEC supply peaks sooner than expected
- Supply dynamics point to higher oil prices in 2025, likely above $90/bbl