Experts Predict Bleak Future for US-China Relations, Including Possibility of War Over Taiwan
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Experts developed 4 theoretical scenarios for future US-China relations, all with bleak outcomes all-out war, separate world blocs, refusal to cooperate, or economic decoupling.
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None of the scenarios predict the optimistic outcome of shared growth that seemed possible post-Cold War. Both sides now see each other as threats.
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If war happened, it might start in the 2030s over Taiwan. A series of crises and mistrust could lead to full conflict.
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Or two separate technology blocs could form, dividing the world and collapsing the WTO with negative economic impacts. Proxy wars might increase.
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More positively, the countries could slowly decouple economies while avoiding escalation. But the post-1980s relationship would still break down.