Economist Predicts US Job Market Slowdown, Rising Unemployment in 2024

Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics predicts significant US labor market weakening starting in Q2 2024

Shepherdson forecasts 5 Fed interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2024, more than markets currently expect

Small business hiring intentions and ability to get loans are declining, signaling slower job growth

Layoff announcements and unemployment claims may rise based on lead indicators

Quit rates suggest job opportunities are diminishing, with potential for unemployment rate to rise above 5%