Recession Indicators Flash Warning Signs, But Markets Remain Bullish
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The Sahm Rule, a famous recession indicator, is flashing warning signs that a recession could happen soon, even though markets don't believe it.
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The indicator is close to the same levels it showed before the last 3 recessions.
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Other indicators like the yield curve and near-term Treasury yields also suggest high odds of a recession in the next 12 months.
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But investors seem bullish, with 47% feeling positive on stocks over the next 6 months.
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Rosenberg believes a recession is now 4 times more likely than continued expansion, putting stocks at risk of a 39% crash.