Recession Fears Ease as Economic Bellwether Ends Nearly 2-Year Slide
• The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) gained 0.1% in February, ending a 23-month decline that had signaled recession risk
• The LEI is heavily weighted toward goods economy; services now drive most growth, so LEI may overstate risks
• Separate index from Carson Group suggests continued economic growth this year
• Historically, end of LEI declines signals higher stock market returns over next 12 months
• Average 1-year S&P 500 return after LEI turns positive is 15.6%, median is 19.2%