Economic Warning Signs Flash as Markets Hit Highs

The commercial real estate market is showing signs of distress with foreclosures, vacancies, and falling prices. This could negatively impact banks and the broader economy.

Despite economic cracks, stock prices continue hitting record highs, with valuation metrics well above historical norms suggesting overvaluation.

Consumer spending is softening as savings deplete and delinquencies rise; manufacturing and housing data point to an economic slowdown.

Regional Fed surveys show contracting business activity, challenging the narrative of a strong economy and optimistic GDP growth forecasts.

Disinflation continues and odds of a June rate cut seem significant given Fed’s positive reaction to inflation data and lagging shelter CPI component.