Trump 2024 Win Could Revive Economic Uncertainty
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A Trump presidential victory could upset financial markets again, leading to rising bond yields and inflation. His economic policies like tax cuts and tariffs could worsen fiscal deficits.
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Markets are already pricing in some volatility around the November 2024 election. Analysts expect less surprise than in 2016 but still likely higher yields if Trump wins.
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Trump has proposed new tariffs on imports and retaining his 2017 tax cuts - measures seen as inflationary in the current environment.
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Growing fiscal deficits under either Trump or Biden could put pressure on interest rates if public debt mounts. But Trump's trade policies could differentiate him.
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The Fed chairman appointment will be closely watched. Trump still criticizes Jerome Powell and wants lower rates, threatening the Fed's independence.