Akebia Faces Uphill Battle Commercially Despite New Drug Approval
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Akebia's newly approved drug Vafseo faces a grim commercial outlook similar to GSK's HIF-PH inhibitor Jesduvroq, which sees little uptake among prescribers. Vafseo may have negative net present value.
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Akebia's other marketed drug, Auryxia, provides steady but limited revenue growth potential due to competition. Recent patent expirations raise risks of generics entering.
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Financial position is leveraged with $42.9M cash against $81M debt. Cash runway extended "at least 24 months" via financing activities.
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Short interest is low at 5.38% float. Institutions and insiders are net buyers over past year, signaling confidence.
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Risk/reward profile deemed unfavorable. Stock price may not reflect Vafseo's poor outlook. Preclinical assets overlooked but unlikely to boost stock.