Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Uncertainties Cloud 2024 Outlook
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Geopolitical tensions are growing globally - Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Middle East conflicts, US-China disputes over trade and Taiwan. This could negatively impact global trade and inflation.
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Shipping costs and shipping insurance premiums are rising due to conflicts like the war in Yemen disrupting major trade routes. This could exacerbate inflation.
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Major asset managers like BlackRock are warning that markets seem complacent about rising geopolitical risks which could structurally impact the global economy.
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Chinese stocks have had a terrible start to 2024, losing over 10% amidst a real estate crisis, economic slowdown, and lack of government stimulus.
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New research suggests AI automation of jobs will happen more gradually than feared, with only 23% of wages for vulnerable jobs cost-effective to automate now. This offers some reassurance for policymakers.