APEC Forecasts Slower Growth Ahead Amid Global Headwinds
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APEC economic growth is forecast to decline in 2024 and remain below global average due to higher interest rates slowing US growth, China's continued struggles, and US-China tensions hampering trade.
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Downside risks include persistent inflation, higher agricultural prices, and disruptions in the fertilizer supply chain.
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Trade volume growth is set to rebound in 2023 after flat growth this year due to China's sluggish economy.
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Export and import growth are forecast to peak in 2025 before declining slightly in 2026 due to geo-political fragmentation disrupting longstanding supply chains.
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It's important for the US and China to improve relations after years of tariff battles and export restrictions that are driving up supply chain costs.