Israel-Hezbollah Tensions Heightened After Beirut Drone Strike, But All-Out War Seen as Unlikely
• Israel carried out a drone strike in Beirut, killing a Hamas operative in Hezbollah's stronghold, fueling speculation of a wider Israel-Hezbollah war.
• Israel is aiming to restore deterrence and fear in its enemies after the attack that killed 7 Israelis on October 7th. The rhetoric of war serves as a warning to Hezbollah.
• Fundamentally though, neither Hezbollah nor Israel wants an all-out war due to the expected devastation and costs.
• Israel would prefer diplomatic pressure to weaken Hezbollah. Its war rhetoric hopes to galvanize international action.
• However, miscalculations and mistakes could still spark a wider regional war, as the danger of escalation remains real.