Inflation Expected to Decline to 2% Target Rate in 2022 as Pandemic and War Impacts Fade

Inflation rate should decline to around 2% by end of 2022 as impact of pandemic stimulus and war in Ukraine fades. Shelter costs are main driver currently.

Core inflation rate excluding food and energy already near 2% target. Just needs to incorporate new lower lease rates.

Market overreacted to September CPI report, focusing too much on slight uptick in headline number versus downward trend.

Rate hikes take time to impact economy so shouldn't raise rates again based just on backward looking data.

Supply increase from new housing units being built will help keep rent prices in check going forward.