Posted 4/7/2024, 5:00:00 AM
Bernanke to Lead BOE Forecasting and Communication Review After Inflation Missteps
- Ben Bernanke leading review of BOE's forecasting process and communication after it failed to predict high inflation
- Expected to suggest replacing "fan charts" with flexible "scenarios" to better communicate range of MPC views
- Scenarios became a tool during pandemic to address uncertainties; used by Sweden's Riksbank
- Could help resolve communication challenges like in Nov 2022 when BOE warnings misled public and markets
- Unlikely to be overly critical as forecast errors similar to other major central banks; modeling and data inputs may need upgrading