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Bitcoin Slides 15% Since July As Macro Uncertainty Weighs Despite Bullish Fundamentals

  • Bitcoin fell 15% since July while gold and S&P 500 remained stable, showing BTC struggled to gain momentum despite bullish events.

  • Derivatives metrics like futures premiums and options skews stayed resilient during the dip below $25k, suggesting caution on both sides.

  • Macro uncertainty around inflation data and court cases favors bears but derivatives show bulls still confident in range.

  • Prospects like ETF approval and 2024 halving remain potential 2024 bull drivers though timing unpredictable.

  • Both bulls and bears have strong cases so derivatives markets not excessively positioned either way, expecting range mean of $25.5k-$26.2k.

cointelegraph.com
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Bitcoin's recent 11.4% price correction from $29,340 to $25,980 has led experts to analyze the impact on the market structure, with some attributing the volatility to reduced liquidity and market makers adjusting their algorithms, however, examination of the derivatives market shows that whales and market makers remain optimistic and not bearish, as evidenced by the futures premium remaining neutral to bullish and the lack of bearish sentiment in options markets.
Google Bard predicts that the price of Bitcoin in the next bull market is uncertain but likely to be significantly higher than the current price, with some analysts suggesting it could reach $100,000, $200,000, or even $1 million by 2024. However, the ultimate price will depend on various factors such as the global economy, institutional adoption, and regulatory environment.
Options data indicates a stronger bearish outlook for ether in the short and long terms, while traders remain bullish on bitcoin due to expectations of it being the first beneficiary of a positive macroeconomic environment.
Ethereum may have reached a bottom in the bear market and is expected to break out from an ascending triangle pattern, according to crypto strategist Credible Crypto, who predicts a consolidation between $1,600 and $2,000 for the rest of the year before a surge in early 2024. However, they also hold a bearish view for ETH/BTC in the short term.
Bitcoin remains on track for a massive bull cycle despite recent price decline, as indicated by broader indicators of its price patterns and the use of logarithmic growth curves. The 200-week moving average is seen as less significant as a key price support level for Bitcoin, and the analyst is also looking for an entry point for Ethereum.
Bitcoin's recent surge in value may be attributed to a $10 billion investment by whales, Robinhood's involvement in a $3 billion Bitcoin purchase, and JPMorgan analysts predicting an end to the crypto bear market.
Bitcoin's velocity has decreased to a 3-year low, potentially suggesting that whales are holding onto their positions rather than transferring ownership to new investors. Meanwhile, select altcoins like Toncoin, Monero, Mantle, and Quant are showing signs of strength and could present short-term trading opportunities depending on Bitcoin's next move.
Long-term holders of Bitcoin are continuing to accumulate the cryptocurrency despite recent market volatility, indicating a bullish outlook for the future, according to analysts from Bitfinex. However, newer long-term holders who acquired their positions during the bear market are showing more unease and have exited their positions during price drops.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that Bitcoin is likely to follow its historical bearish price action seen in pre-halving years and predicts that the cryptocurrency will remain within a range of $12,000 to $35,000 for the rest of 2023.
Cryptocurrency industry observers argue that Bitcoin is not in its longest bear market and may not even be in a bear market at all, as the definitions of bull and bear markets are subjective and can vary based on different interpretations. Some believe that Bitcoin has been in a bear market since its peak in November 2021, while others argue that Bitcoin has been in a continuous bull market since 2019.
Despite the current market conditions, a crypto strategist believes that Bitcoin (BTC) could experience a significant upward movement, potentially forming a bullish higher-low setup after a possible drop to around $23,600.
Bitcoin bulls may be disappointed as a monthly technical indicator suggests a weakening of upward momentum, potentially leading to a long and drawn-out basing process.
Bitcoin is expected to experience a corrective move before resuming its bullish momentum and potentially surpassing its previous highs, according to a pseudonymous analyst who accurately predicted the lowest price of the cryptocurrency during the 2018 bear market.
Bitcoin is predicted to reach $22,000 due to worsening investor sentiment and the impact of lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, while BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes claims the bull market began in March.
Despite the recent downturn in the crypto market, a key Bitcoin metric shows that 95% of the existing supply of Bitcoin has not moved in the past 30 days, indicating strong holding behavior and potential for a price rally with a buy-side catalyst.
Bitcoin faced resistance at the 20-day EMA, indicating that bears are guarding this level, but the failure of bears to challenge the $24,800 support suggests selling pressure may be weakening, with a potential recovery towards $28,143 if the 20-day EMA is surpassed; meanwhile, Ethereum is at risk of a breakdown below $1,626, Cardano shows indecision between bulls and bears, and Dogecoin remains range-bound between the 20-day EMA and $0.06.
US-based institutional investors are showing increasing bullish pressure on Bitcoin, as indicated by rising buy pressure and spot trading volumes, potentially leading to a price rally towards $28,000 if the trend continues.
Bitcoin could experience one final correction of up to 10%, according to crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe, who advises long-term bulls to see it as an opportunity to increase their BTC holdings. However, if Bitcoin manages to stay above the 200-week EMA, it could continue to move upwards.
Bitcoin is on the brink of a bearish breakdown, but there is a possibility that the $25,000 support level could hold, presenting a short-term buying opportunity for investors. The price action of the US dollar and on-chain data suggest that buyers could return soon, making the current situation potentially profitable for opening Bitcoin longs.
Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to hold $26,000 as bulls sought to regain control, with resistance levels and upcoming bearish events posing potential challenges.
Bitcoin's market dominance rate has reached its strongest level in a month, rising to 50.2%, as risks rise for the rest of the cryptocurrency sector, while alternative cryptocurrencies may be on the brink of breaking lower.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a rise in value as traders made bullish bets in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, though this surge may be premature.
Crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen predicts that Bitcoin will experience a short-term rise to test its bull market support band before resuming its downward trend, potentially falling below $20,000, although he believes it could eventually break through the band and enter a sustained bull market.
A 0% interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve is expected to be bullish for Bitcoin, as historically BTC's price has correlated with risk equities and central bank policy.
Crypto strategist Credible Crypto suggests that Bitcoin could dip to around $24,900 but still remain on track for a bull market cycle, and he is closely monitoring Bitcoin options open interest as an indicator for the market bottom.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are experiencing a decline in prices due to a strengthening dollar and risk-aversion, but there is hope for a rebound.
Bitcoin may be heading for a further price decline according to a top trader who previously predicted the cryptocurrency's 2018 bear market bottom, citing a bearish lower-high setup and an ABC corrective move that could push Bitcoin down to $23,800.
Bitcoin is poised for a bull run next year according to analyst Dave the Wave, who cites the cryptocurrency's monthly moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and logarithmic growth curves (LGC) as indicators of a maturing market and potential price increase, although short-term volatility is still possible.
Bitcoin (BTC) prices are expected to remain bearish in the short term, but analysts anticipate a significant price increase after the 2024 halving event due to past performance and long-term valuation metrics.
Bitcoin's weakness suggests that bears are still in control, but bulls are likely to defend the $26,000 level and aim for a positive monthly close, while macroeconomic factors and the strength of the US dollar pose risks to the cryptocurrency recovery.
Bitcoin price surged above $26,800 as bulls targeted $27,000, with analysts predicting a potential rally to $30,000 in October.
Bitcoin managed to hold above the $26,000 level despite a drop in the S&P 500 and a rise in the US dollar, indicating a lack of aggressive selling, while low liquidity could lead to volatile price movements and traders are advised to wait for confirmations.
Bitcoin and Ethereum saw gains in the crypto market driven by factors such as the announcement of an Ethereum futures ETF, a rise in the S&P 500 index, and short liquidations, with the rest of the market also experiencing bullish gains.
Bitcoin bulls and bears are expected to be misled by a fake death cross during Bitcoin's pre-halving year, resulting in a lower high, according to analyst Benjamin Cowen.
Bitcoin (BTC) starts Uptober with a bullish move past $28,000, marking its best weekly close since mid-August and sparking excitement about potential price gains in October. Meanwhile, Bitcoin network fundamentals are not reflecting the bullish sentiment, as mining difficulty is set to decrease at its next readjustment on October 2.
Bitcoin (BTC) may test its bull market support and potentially have a final leg to the downside, as predicted by crypto analyst Rekt Capital, who also suggests that this could be the last chance to buy BTC at low prices before it potentially peaks in 2025.
Crypto strategist predicts that Bitcoin will enter a massive bull run and reach new all-time highs once it surpasses a key support level, but warns that bearish speculation from the stock market could decrease momentum.
Bitcoin's bull market is expected to reignite as the Federal Reserve is predicted to resume printing money, leading to a surge in Bitcoin's price, according to BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes.
Bitcoin experienced a brief rally above $28,000 but quickly dropped to $27,300, remaining relatively flat compared to the wider crypto market; however, it is still defying the market rout in equity and U.S. Treasury bond trading, signaling a bull market, according to ByteTree's chief investment officer.
Bitcoin could face difficulties in the long term due to tightening liquidity in the current macroeconomic environment, according to crypto analyst Nicholas Merten. Merten believes that Bitcoin's price is heavily influenced by monetary policy and warns that if sentiment turns bearish, investors may start cashing out.
Bitcoin's bear market may be over and an upward expansion is likely, according to a popular crypto analyst who compares the current situation to that before the 2016 and 2020 bull markets.
Bitcoin futures prices are lower in early U.S. trading, but the bulls still have the advantage and are keeping the price uptrend alive.
Crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen believes that the crypto market is in a "brutal" stage as Bitcoin's dominance increases while altcoins drop, and he predicts that Bitcoin's dominance will likely peak at around 60%.
Bitcoin's price may experience a significant drop to $19,000 before entering a full bull market next year, according to a trader who accurately predicted the cryptocurrency's 2018 bear market bottom; the trader also suggests that the smart contract platform Avalanche's altcoin bounce is over after failing to break resistance at $11.
Investors are showing a preference for ether over bitcoin in a high interest rate environment, with ether futures ETFs experiencing low volumes and the ether-bitcoin ratio reaching its lowest point since July 2022. The underperformance of ether relative to bitcoin is attributed to the bear market and the potential for continued underperformance due to the higher interest rate environment. Bitcoin's status as a digital gold and its regulatory advantages also contribute to its favorability over ether.
Bitcoin futures prices are weaker as bears gain momentum, with bulls needing to show fresh power to restart the price uptrend.