Bond Rally May Not Signal New Bull Market Despite Improved Sentiment
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Explosive bond rallies don't necessarily mean a new bull market has begun, despite improving investor sentiment
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There have been similar large bond rallies during the 2020-2023 bear market that were followed by further declines
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Just because past rallies were bear market rallies doesn't guarantee the current one will be too
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Bond prices already reflect expectations for lower interest rates in 2024, so significant further declines are needed to fuel a major rally
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It's impossible to definitively identify bull and bear rallies in real time since that knowledge would already be priced into the market