Earnings and Fed Policy to Steer Rate Cut Forecasts, Though Data Remains Decisive
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Earnings season and Fed policy decisions will both influence rate cut predictions, but if economic data is in line it may take a back seat to earnings.
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Earnings growth depends on the macro environment - a Goldilocks scenario could boost S&P 500 but disinflation could challenge upside.
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Bond market volatility suggests persistent uncertainty about inflation trends.
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If data and Fed policy support rate cuts, it could reduce bond volatility.
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Base case is 2-3 Fed rate cuts this year, but it's data dependent - equity markets care more that cuts are coming than exact timing.