Yield Curve Inversion Signals Bear Market Ahead, Though Bull Market May Continue Through 2024

The yield curve has a strong record of indicating when bear markets come. An inversion tends to signal a bear market.

The current yield curve inversion implies a massive bear market will start next fall, likely after the curve turns positive.

The stock market fluctuates in cycles. Several market cycles suggest the bull market will peak in 2024.

High return percentiles in July were not sustainable, contributing to the recent correction.

Shorter-term cycles suggest the correction is over and the bull market has resumed.