Main Topic: China's declining fertility rate and efforts to boost birth rates.
Key Points:
1. China's fertility rate has dropped to a record low of 1.09 in 2022, the lowest among countries with a population of over 100 million.
2. Beijing is concerned about the country's first population drop in six decades and its rapidly aging population, and is implementing measures to increase the birth rate.
3. High child care costs, career interruptions, gender discrimination, and traditional stereotypes are factors contributing to the low fertility rate.
### Summary
Last week, Moody's warned that China's aging population will impact demand for homes, reduce the labor pool, and have an impact on competitiveness. Age dependency ratios in China are increasing, indicating a higher need for healthcare services and pension payouts.
### Facts
- Moody's warned that China's aging population will be a drag on economic potential if policy measures fail to boost the birthrate and promote productivity.
- China's aging population will impact demand for homes and reduce the labor pool, leading to higher wages and a negative impact on competitiveness.
- Demographics will support housing demand in Indonesia and Vietnam over the next decade, while China experiences the opposite trend.
- The age dependency ratio in China has been increasing, indicating a higher need for healthcare services and pension payouts.
- India's growth trajectory has not been significantly impacted by demographic factors historically, but efforts to maximize productivity and create opportunities can change that.
- Technological and institutional innovations can ameliorate the effects of population aging.
- India has an opportunity to tap into China's worsening demographic and seize the moment, potentially surpassing Vietnam and Indonesia.
(Source: Hindustan Times)
China's economy, which has been a model of growth for the past 40 years, is facing deep distress and its long era of rapid economic expansion may be coming to an end, marked by slow growth, unfavorable demographics, and a growing divide with the US and its allies, according to the Wall Street Journal.
China's youth unemployment rate has reached record highs, with many young people refusing to find jobs they deem unattractive, leading to the rise of "full-time children" who rely on family support, while others are forced into unstable and low-paying jobs in the platform economy; experts warn of the long-term impact on mental health and productivity.
China's economy is facing challenges, with youth unemployment at a record high, mismatched skills in the job market, and the risk of falling into the middle-income trap, jeopardizing President Xi Jinping's goal of turning China into a high-income nation.
China's economy is struggling due to an imbalance between investments and consumption, resulting in increased debt and limited household spending, and without a shift towards consumption and increased policy measures, the economic slowdown may have profound consequences for China and the world.
China's economy is facing a "new new normal" due to a declining population and weak confidence in its post-Covid recovery, prompting calls for systemic reforms to revive growth. The country's aging and shrinking population poses challenges to productivity, consumption, and long-term growth potential, leading major investment banks to cut growth forecasts. Policy adviser Cai Fang suggests relaxing population controls and focusing on expanding consumption as strategies to boost economic growth.
Forecasts for China's economic growth in 2023 and 2024 have been cut, potentially hindering the country's goal of becoming a "medium-developed country" by 2035 and surpassing the US as the world's No.1 economy.
China's economic growth has slowed but has not collapsed, and while there are concerns about financial risks and a potential property crisis, there are also bright spots such as the growth of the new energy and technology sectors that could boost the economy.
The declining birth rates in China are being worsened by health and professional obstacles faced by women, including career pressure, infertility, and high costs, according to research published by authorities in the province of Hunan, further exacerbating the country's demographic crisis.
China's economy is still expected to grow 5% this year, despite outsized expectations and challenges such as a bloated property sector and demographic issues.
China is seeking to increase productivity and efficiency in its industrial northeast region, facing economic challenges such as an aging population, declining birthrate, and a real estate crisis, but some economists argue that the government's focus on industrial investments is outdated and lacks measures to stimulate consumer confidence and spending.
China's economic growth appears to be slowing down, with issues such as an aging population and a collapsing housing sector leading to speculation that the country's economic miracle may be coming to an end, while its diplomatic strategies have also caused strain on international relationships.
India's demographic shift towards an aging population poses a significant economic challenge and could hinder the realization of the country's demographic dividend, highlighting the need for sustained economic growth and capital investment to support the elderly and boost productivity.
China's era of power and prosperity may be coming to an end as signs of economic decline emerge, making it unlikely for China to overtake the United States in the next decade.
