China Faces Economic Headwinds and Potential Trade Wars Ahead in 2024
• China faces systemic economic problems like oversupply in real estate and other sectors, high debt levels, weak demand, stalled productivity growth, and an aging population.
• The government is unlikely to pursue major reforms or stimulus in 2024 and will instead rely on cheerleading propaganda.
• Relations with the US and EU have stabilized for now but further trade tensions loom due to China's industrial policies and excess capacity in areas like electric vehicles.
• If re-elected, Trump may again emphasize trade policy vis-à-vis China as he did in his first term.
• China's export and industrialization push is likely to trigger a new round of trade wars with the US and EU.