Posted 10/30/2023, 7:00:00 AM
Middle East Conflict Poses Risks of Energy Price Spikes, Though Baseline Forecast StillCalls for Declines
- Conflict in the Middle East has heightened geopolitical risks for commodity markets
- Before the conflict, OPEC+ supply cuts pushed energy prices up 9% in Q3 2022
- So far, the war's impact on prices has been muted, but an escalation poses major risks
- Baseline forecast calls for slight commodity price declines over next 2 years, assuming limited conflict
- If conflict widens, supply disruptions could lead to surging oil and commodity prices