Posted 1/25/2024, 5:30:13 PM
Economy Shows Resilience But Risks Loom for Consumers in 2023
- Despite stronger than expected 4Q GDP growth of 3.3%, risks of a recession by mid-2024 remain due to expected consumer weakness
- Ongoing economic resilience and good inflation news is a "goldilocks scenario" for markets currently
- Savings depletion, hiring pullbacks, and a loosening job market will likely "pressure" consumers and lead to an economic softening
- Anecdotal evidence like rising delinquencies and weaker manufacturing surveys point to developing cracks in the economy
- The strength of the 4Q GDP report belies worrying signs in the labor market that point to lower real earnings growth ahead