2023 Defies Recession Predictions with Unexpected Economic Growth, But Forecasters Remain Wary of 2024
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Despite predictions, 2023 saw economic growth instead of recession. Forecasters are still pessimistic about 2024, doubting 2023's strength.
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There's reluctance to acknowledge the "soft landing" - falling inflation alongside labor market strength. Challenges were greater in 2023 than expected in 2024.
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Resilience isn't about "running out" of pandemic savings. It's flows - like rising wages - not just stocks.
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The soft landing has "hard edges" - slowing goods consumption, negative profit growth. But higher rates and bankruptcies don't necessarily mean recession.
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Recessions happen, but 2024 growth remains likely. Risks exist but "policy error" now lower. Financial crisis possible but addressed. Shock-driven recession can't be ruled out but not base case.