Posted 12/20/2023, 1:42:15 PM
Economists' Predictions Miss Mark in 2022 as Studies Face Scrutiny
- Economists had a bad year making predictions, including calling a recession that didn't happen and missing a key Fed policy shift
- High-profile research on inequality, housing supply constraints, social mobility, and “deaths of despair” has been challenged or disputed
- The field of behavioral economics faced scandal relating to alleged data manipulation
- The overreliance on empirical studies versus theory may have gone too far post-financial crisis
- But if economists' pessimistic predictions don't pan out, like on inequality and despair, that's ultimately good news