Don't Trust the Optimism: Economists Likely to Miss Next Recession

Economists and the Fed are forecasting no recession, but their predictions have historically been overly optimistic.

Lagging economic indicators don't reflect the full impact of Fed tightening, which suggests recession risk remains high.

In the past, markets have typically turned lower before economists officially declare a recession.

GDP growth rates were still solid prior to the start of past recessions, so current growth doesn't preclude a downturn.

Economists likely won't recognize the next recession until it's too late, so investors should be wary of overly optimistic projections.