Egypt Faces Dilemma Over Costly Bread Subsidies as Climate Change and Population Growth Threaten Wheat Supply
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Egypt's bread subsidies are expensive, costing $2.9 billion last year, and unsustainable as population grows and climate change reduces wheat yields.
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Egypt imports over half its wheat and is vulnerable to global price fluctuations. Domestic wheat yields are predicted to fall 10-20% by 2060 due to climate change.
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Egypt's population is forecast to hit 160 million by 2050, making it hard to grow enough subsidized wheat domestically.
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Replacing subsidies with cash transfers would be cheaper but politically difficult given importance of bread and high food inflation.
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Egypt plans to spend $246 billion on climate adaptation by 2030, nearly 10% of GDP annually, but may need to reform bread subsidies to fund this.