Euro zone business activity declined more than expected in August, particularly in Germany, while some inflationary pressures returned, posing a challenge for the European Central Bank's efforts to control inflation without causing a recession.
The flash PMI numbers for August indicate contraction in the French, German, and Eurozone manufacturing and services sectors, causing a negative impact on the Euro and Pound, as well as a spike in the US Dollar Index and increased investment in sovereign debt.
Germany's business activity has seen a sharp decline, leading to concerns of a recession, as the country's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dipped to its lowest level in over three years. This decline in activity is impacting the wider eurozone economy as well, with the region at risk of slipping into recession. This economic downturn is accompanied by a worrying uptick in inflation and slow growth, particularly in Germany.
The Eurozone and UK services PMI data led to a drop in the euro and pound, while weakness was observed in Canadian consumers and China, suggesting a darkening global growth picture as interest rates rise, with the US being the main source of growth but showing signs of slowing in mortgage applications and student debt repayments.
Euro zone manufacturing shows signs of improvement, while China's private PMI unexpectedly rebounds, offering hope for export-reliant economies, but Germany's manufacturing sector remains in a downturn and factory activity weakens in much of Asia.
European stocks and Asian equities declined as disappointing data from China raised concerns about the country's economic recovery, with the Stoxx 600 dropping 0.7% and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index heading for its first drop in seven days.
China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 in August, indicating a slight improvement in domestic demand, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 51, suggesting a slowdown in the services sector; however, the composite PMI remained in expansion territory, indicating a modest cyclical recovery is likely.
European markets were slightly lower as concerns over higher interest rates emerged from recent central bank decisions, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index down 0.1%, while construction and material stocks dropped 0.9% and mining stocks added 0.9%.
The euro zone economy is expected to contract this quarter and remain in recession as the impact of central banks' interest rate rises hampers growth, according to a survey by HCOB's flash euro zone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with Germany and France experiencing significant declines in business activity.
