### Summary
Investors are looking to put their cash into junk assets as fears of a severe US recession recede, leading to increased demand for high-yield markets and borrowers taking advantage of refinancing and amend-and-extend transactions.
### Facts
- There is an excess demand for high-yield markets due to limited issuance, resulting in borrowers having more flexibility through refinancing and amend-and-extend transactions.
- The amount of high-yield credit due in 2025 has decreased by almost 12% since the start of 2023.
- US GDP growth is expected to increase, leading to Morgan Stanley lowering its base case for US junk and loan spreads.
- Safer companies are holding back from taking advantage of the rally, anticipating lower borrowing costs in the future.
- Risk appetite has softened due to concerns over higher interest rates, leading to a two-speed economy and potential challenges for companies with high levels of leverage.
- The private credit market set a record with the largest loan in its history, and several other notable financial transactions have taken place in the week.
- There have been personnel changes in various financial institutions, including Credit Suisse, Canada's Bank of Nova Scotia, and Santander.
The recent rise in interest rates is causing credit to become more expensive and harder to obtain, which will have significant implications for various sectors of the economy such as real estate, automobiles, finance/banks, and venture capital/tech companies. Rising rates also affect the fair value of assets, presenting both opportunities and risks for investors.
Despite reaching record levels of total credit card debt and household debt, Americans are actually managing their debt better than in the past due to inflation masking the impact on balances and lower debt-to-deposit levels, according to an analysis by WalletHub. However, the rising trajectory of credit card debt and the increasing number of households carrying balances raise concerns, especially considering the high interest rates, which can take more than 17 years to pay off and cost thousands of dollars in interest. Meanwhile, savers have the opportunity to earn higher returns on cash due to higher inflation and interest rates.
U.S. economic growth, outpacing other countries, may pose global risks if the Federal Reserve is forced to raise interest rates higher than expected, potentially leading to financial tightening and ripple effects in emerging markets.
The Bank of England may have to increase interest rates if the US Federal Reserve decides to raise rates to cut inflation, in order to prevent the pound from weakening and inflation from rising further.
Mortgage rates have increased recently due to inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, but experts predict rates will remain in the 6% to 7% range for now; homebuyers should focus on improving their credit scores and comparing lenders to get the best deal.
More Americans are struggling to keep up with car loan and credit card payments, particularly lower-income earners, as higher prices and rising borrowing costs put pressure on household budgets, signaling potential consumer stress; the situation is expected to worsen as interest rates continue to rise and paused student loan payments resume.
Americans facing high prices and interest rates are struggling to repay credit card and auto loans, leading to rising delinquencies and defaults with no immediate relief in sight, particularly for low-income individuals, as analysts expect the situation to worsen before it improves.
The US banking industry faces significant downside risks from inflation and high interest rates, which could weaken profitability and credit quality, according to FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg.
Major companies are becoming more cautious about borrowing in a higher interest rate environment, leading to a decrease in corporate bond issuances.
Despite bond rating agencies issuing warnings and downgrades for banks in the US, equity analysts argue that the warnings were inaccurate due to rising bank stock prices and better-than-expected earnings reports. However, the regional banking sector has still experienced a significant decline this year and faces uncertainty regarding the future role of banks in providing credit to the economy. Additionally, the debate about banks revolves around interest rates and the state of real estate, particularly office buildings.
The Wall Street Journal reports a notable shift in the stance of Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rates, with some officials now seeing risks as more balanced due to easing inflation and a less overheated labor market, which could impact the timing of future rate hikes. In other news, consumer credit growth slows in July, China and Japan reduce holdings of U.S. Treasury securities to record lows, and Russia's annual inflation rate reached 5.2% in August 2023.
Americans are facing a higher rejection rate for loans and credit cards as lenders tighten their lending standards, with those with a credit score below 680 most affected.
Leading market experts are raising concerns about the growing US debt, warning that it will lead to higher interest rates and potential economic repercussions as federal deficits increase and US debt supply continues to grow.
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold off on raising interest rates, but consumers are still feeling the impact of previous hikes, with credit card rates topping 20%, mortgage rates above 7%, and auto loan rates exceeding 7%.
The regional banking crisis in the U.S. during March of this year has had lasting effects on the industry and the economy, with tightened credit conditions and a risk of over-correction in interest rates, according to interviews with regional bank executives and economists.
Consumers can benefit from higher interest rates through increased savings rates, with some high-yield savings accounts now offering returns higher than the national inflation rate, providing a low-risk option for those seeking a lower-risk return.
Many Americans are finding it more difficult to get credit and are resorting to payday loans due to the impact of higher interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, leading to increased financial strain for households.
The Federal Reserve has upgraded its economic outlook, indicating stronger growth and lower unemployment, but also plans to raise interest rates and keep borrowing costs elevated, causing disappointment in the markets and potential challenges for borrowers.
Credit card delinquency rates are rising, which could potentially pose a problem for banks and lenders in the future.
Bank of America's data indicates a slowdown in consumer spending, with spending on their credit cards decreasing and other categories, particularly discretionary ones, slowing down as well. This suggests cracks in the resilient consumer narrative and could potentially prompt the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates.
The US economy is facing turbulence as inflation rates rise, causing losses in US Treasuries and raising concerns about the impact of high interest rates on assets like Bitcoin and the stock market. With additional government debt expected to mature in the next year, there is a fear of financial instability and the potential for severe disruptions in the financial system. The Federal Reserve may continue to support the financial system through emergency credit lines, which could benefit assets like Bitcoin.
Rising interest rates, rather than inflation, are now a major concern for the US economy, as the bond market indicates that rates may stay high for an extended period of time, potentially posing significant challenges for the sustainability of government debt.
Interest rates for certificates of deposit and high-yield savings accounts have increased significantly in recent years due to the Federal Reserve's rate hikes, but it is uncertain if rates will continue to rise or if they have reached their peak.
The Federal Reserve's shift towards higher interest rates is causing significant turmoil in financial markets, with major averages falling and Treasury yields reaching their highest levels in 16 years, resulting in increased costs of capital for companies and potential challenges for banks and consumers.
The Federal Reserve's acceptance of the recent surge in long-term interest rates puts the economy at risk of a financial blowup and higher borrowing costs for consumers and companies.
Despite efforts by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to curb borrowing and spending habits, many American companies, both investment-grade and sub-investment grade, have continued to borrow more money, potentially indicating that interest rates may need to be raised even higher to effectively break the cycle. Increased borrowing has raised concerns about the financial health and stability of businesses, with indicators of companies' ability to make payments deteriorating. The borrowing spree is primarily a North American phenomenon, as European and Asian companies have added far less debt or decreased their borrowing.
The strong US jobs report is increasing the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate increase, which is adding to the pain in credit markets already affected by rising yields and could result in increased default risk and reduced profitability for corporate America.
The average US mortgage rate is at its highest level in 23 years, but individual rates can vary depending on factors like credit score, debt-to-income ratio, employment history, and down payment amount. Borrowers with lower risk profiles can secure lower rates, while those with higher risk may face higher rates or even loan denials. Shopping around and considering options like buying down the rate with discount points can help borrowers lower their mortgage rates. Lenders are prohibited from discriminatory practices based on protected categories, and consumers have rights to information and transparency in credit decisions.
Rising interest rates are having a limited negative impact on businesses and consumers, as strong business and consumer finances help mitigate the effects of higher rates.
Higher-for-longer interest rates are expected to hinder U.S. economic growth by 0.5%, potentially leading unprofitable public companies to cut their workforce, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs, who also noted that the Federal Reserve's current benchmark rate is insufficient to cause a recession. Additionally, the firm warned that the high rates could increase the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio to 123% over the next decade without a fiscal agreement in Washington.
The housing industry blames the Federal Reserve for unnecessarily high mortgage rates, stating that if the Fed had provided clearer guidance, rates could be significantly lower, which poses risks to economic growth.
Top Federal Reserve officials are considering that tighter financial conditions resulting from an increase in US Treasury yields may replace the need for further interest rate hikes.
