UBS: 2020s Unlikely to See 'Roaring Twenties' Repeat Despite Some Parallels to 1990s
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UBS economists believe the 2020s will more closely resemble the 1990s than the 1970s or post-WWII eras in terms of economic conditions.
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Key factors needed for a "roaring 20's" repeat are contained inflation, widespread investment, increased productivity - which UBS sees as unlikely.
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Parallels to 1990s include faster growth, rising productivity, disinflation after initial Fed rate hikes like 1994.
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The economy faces unusual uncertainty currently with outcomes often opposite forecasts.
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Supply chain issues, especially in critical minerals and oil, are a major headwind alongside other risks like geopolitical conflict.