Prediction Market Sees 8.7% Chance China Invades Taiwan This Year, Higher Than Bond Markets

• Polymarket prediction contract paying 8.7% if China doesn't invade Taiwan by end of year, higher than Taiwan's 2-year government bond yield of 1.26% • Taiwan bonds historically stable, but invasion would upend; prediction market likely overpricing invasion risk • Caution on prediction contract fine print - invasion of Taiwan vs territories administered by Taiwan's government • Geopolitical tensions like Iran-Israel conflict didn't shift 2024 election prediction market much - Biden and Trump at 45% odds • Israel counterattack on Iran seen as just 14% probability by prediction market, signaling sober second thoughts