Economic Warning Signs Flash as Growth Slows, Markets Decline Amid Recession Fears
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GDP growth of 4.9% in Q3 is unlikely to continue due to declines in personal savings rate, limited ability to take on more credit card debt, and reduced government spending.
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The housing market is slowing significantly due to higher interest rates, with falling home sales, prices, and mortgage applications.
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Manufacturing surveys indicate the sector is already in recession, with negative readings for new orders, production, employment, etc.
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Inflation pressures continue to ease, with lower prices received in manufacturing surveys and alternative inflation measures suggesting headline CPI below 1%.
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Financial markets are indicating concerns about an imminent recession, with stocks down 10%+ from summer peaks and 10-year Treasury yields declining.