2024 Outlook: Geopolitical Tensions and Recession Fears Counterbalanced by Falling Inflation, Stock Market Gains
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Geopolitical tensions like the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East turmoil may continue rattling markets in 2024. Major elections in countries representing 60% of global GDP also add uncertainty.
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Inflation is expected to continue falling in most major economies, allowing central banks to cut interest rates. However, recession fears are rising in Europe and the UK.
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The US S&P 500 stock index is expected to end 2024 near all-time highs, with targets ranging from 4,200 to 5,100. The UK's FTSE 100 is seen as undervalued and could rally to over 8,000.
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Global economic growth is set to slow to just 2.8% due to high rates, spending cuts, and China's issues. A "resilient but sluggish" year is predicted rather than a deep recession.
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If central banks engineer a soft landing, 2024 could mark the start of a new economic upswing. But analysts warn "to expect the unexpected" after the turbulence of recent years.