Oil Markets Balanced in Near Term, But Long Term Challenges Remain
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Global oil markets expected to be fairly balanced with a slight surplus in 2024 according to Vitol.
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Oil demand has exceeded 2019 levels and continues growing; oil intensity has returned to pre-pandemic levels except in the US.
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Non-OPEC supply growth has surpassed previous highs; output from Nigeria exceeding expectations.
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Refining sector may experience a growth spurt but capacity could tighten again in 2028-2035 due to low investment.
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Jet fuel demand expected to return to 2019 levels in 2023; not expected to peak until after 2040 due to difficulty decarbonizing aviation.