Goldman Sachs Forecasts Slower But Steady Market Gains in 2024 Despite Risks of Recession and Regulation
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Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to rise 5% in 2024 to 4,700, slower than the historical average in election years.
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The bank sees GDP growth of 2.1% in 2024, avoiding a recession, with the Fed on hold until rate cuts in late 2024.
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Cyclical stocks look attractive compared to tech, though the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps should continue to outperform.
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Key risks include recession fears, commercial real estate loans, antitrust rulings against Big Tech, the 2024 election, and geopolitical conflicts.
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Goldman expects stagnant profit growth in 2024, doubting widespread benefits from AI, though it wrongly predicted the S&P 500 would hit 4,000 in 2023.