Investors Divided on Path for Treasury Yields as Uncertainty Swirls Around Fed Policy

As Treasury yields move toward 5%, over half of investors think yields will fall in the next year.

There are two paths that could bring yields down - a soft landing where inflation hits 2% and no recession, or a hard landing with recession and Fed rate cuts.

Yields often peak when the fed funds rate peaks, so if the Fed's done hiking, yields may have peaked.

Investors may not be buying bonds now if they think the Fed will hike more, waiting for better yields.

Uncertainty around the Fed's path ahead is causing volatility in bond markets.