Job Market and Consumer Spending: Which Will Falter First as Rates Rise?
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Consumer spending and the job market are intricately linked. It's unclear which will weaken first as rates rise.
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Some argue the strong job market has driven consumer spending. Others say spending has enabled strong hiring.
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In 2008, the housing bust impacted spending first, then jobs. This time may be different due to unique pandemic impacts.
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Perception of a weakening job market could spur more savings and less spending, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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