History Shows Strong Stock Market Returns Ahead of Elections, But Uncertainty Still Looms
• History suggests stock market returns are solid in the 12 months leading up to presidential elections, averaging 7.5% in the S&P 500 over the last 8 cycles.
• iCapital's chief investment officer believes improving earnings and Fed policy will drive gains, not election turmoil.
• Markets should progress without issue until just before election day on November 3rd.
• In the final months before the election, median S&P 500 returns taper off to 0.5-0.8%.
• Investors should monitor potential policy changes around taxes, tariffs, and technology sector regulation as the election nears.