Housing Analyst Predicts Gloomy Outlook for Existing Home Sales Through 2025 Due to Spiking Mortgage Rates
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Ivy Zelman, a housing analyst who predicted the 2008 crisis, sees existing home sales staying "extremely depressed" through 2025 due to high mortgage rates.
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Existing home sales fell 14.6% in October 2022 compared to 2021, reaching the lowest pace since 2010 in the aftermath of the Great Recession.
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Over 80% of homeowners have sub-5% mortgage rates, so are unlikely to sell. Rates need to fall further to reboot existing home sales per Zelman.
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Builders have more resilient new home sales due to incentives like mortgage buydowns. But without government support, affordable housing remains scarce.
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After the pandemic boom, the housing market is now in a tough spot with low supply, high prices, and unaffordability issues.