Bull Market Enters Uncharted Territory; Earnings and Inflation Data Key to Outlook
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This secular bull market started in 2010 or 2013 and could last longer than typical cycles due to the weak 2000-2009 period. However, extended periods of low returns are still possible.
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Inflation is seen as less damaging than deflation, so the Fed likely welcomed the post-COVID inflation spike as a sign of economic normalization.
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October PCE/Core PCE on 11/30 will give insight into inflation trends. Continued moderation would likely spur a positive market reaction.
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While Q4 '23 EPS growth estimates have declined, compare favorably to weak Q4 '22 earnings. Forward P/E is elevated at 19.3x.
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Earnings releases to watch this week include CrowdStrike, Workday, Salesforce, Snowflake, and Kroger. Performance will indicate tech/retail health.