Summary: The turmoil in emerging markets, including declines in bonds and stocks, unpredictable political situations in Argentina and Ecuador, and global economic factors, is causing investors to reassess the risks associated with investing in these markets.
Developed nations will need to invest $100-150 billion per year through multilateral development banks to support emerging economies in financing their climate transition, according to Mark Carney, UN special envoy for climate action and finance. Carney emphasized the importance of transition finance for challenging sectors and called for changes in the operational orientation of MDBs to prioritize climate funding.
Emerging markets are facing challenges due to the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation and China's economic slowdown.
The strong U.S. economic growth and potential rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could pose global risks, potentially leading to a significant tightening of global financial conditions and affecting emerging markets and the rest of the world.
Emerging-market central banks are resisting expectations of interest rate cuts, which is lowering the outlook for developing-nation bonds, as central banks in Asia and Latin America turn hawkish in response to the "higher-for-longer" stance taken by the Federal Reserve, currency pressures, and the threat of inflation.
The keynote address by Gita Gopinath at the South African Reserve Bank Biennial Conference highlights three important changes in the external conditions faced by emerging markets: tougher global financial conditions, rising geoeconomic fragmentation, and growing costs of climate change, and suggests three broad actions that policymakers in emerging markets can take to address these challenges.
Emerging market currencies are expected to struggle to recover from their losses this year due to high U.S. Treasury yields, safe-haven demand, and a slowing Chinese economy, keeping the dollar strong, according to a Reuters poll of FX analysts.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank have pledged to increase their cooperation in addressing climate change, debt vulnerabilities, and digital transitions, stating that they are well-positioned to contribute to tackling these challenges.
Investors may want to gain exposure to emerging markets in 2023 due to their high growth potential, the potential for diversification and offsetting of FX impacts, China's policy shifts supporting growth, the ability to compound returns through dividends, and the potential reversal of the MSCI index.
A stronger US dollar has a significant negative impact on emerging market economies compared to smaller advanced economies, as it decreases economic output and trade volume, worsens credit availability and capital inflows, tightens monetary policy, and leads to stock-market declines. Emerging market economies with anchored inflation expectations or flexible exchange rate regimes fare better, and global current account balances decline with a stronger dollar, reflecting a contraction in global trade. Measures such as global safety nets and macroprudential policies can help mitigate these spillover effects.