### Summary
India's retail inflation in July rose to 7.44%, higher than market expectations, and is expected to remain elevated in Q3. The global currency market is experiencing significant turbulence, with the USD appreciating despite economic weaknesses. Heightened inflation and volatility in the currency market pose risks to the Indian market.
### Facts
- India's retail inflation in July was 7.44%, exceeding market expectations.
- Elevated inflation is expected to continue in Q3.
- The global currency market is experiencing turmoil, with the USD appreciating despite economic frailty.
- FII outflows have increased, but India's equity market is performing better than other emerging markets.
- The RBI has revised its inflation forecast upward and expects inflation to decrease to 5.7% in Q3.
- High interest rates and inflation are expected to impact corporate earnings growth and valuation.
- India's one-year forward P/E valuation has decreased from 20x to 18.5x.
- Bond yields have increased, leading to a divestment of equities and acquisition of bonds.
- The domestic market is supported by restrained FII divestment, robust purchasing by DIIs and retail participants, and outperformance compared to other emerging markets.
- Selling in global equities has increased due to concerns of deflation and defaults in China's realty and finance sectors.
- The author expects the selling from FIIs to continue in the short-term due to elevated global bond yields, US credit downgrade, and slowdown in emerging markets, but India will continue to outperform.
- In the last month, the MSCI World index was down 4.2% compared to MSCI India's 1.85% decrease.
Foreign portfolio investment inflows into the Indian markets slowed down in August due to concerns about rate hikes in the US, resulting in higher bond yields and a stronger dollar, but India remains an attractive market for investors compared to other emerging markets.
India's record stock market valuation and increasing foreign inflows are positioning the country as a safe and attractive investment option, especially amidst the economic troubles and struggling financial markets of its neighboring rival, China.
With the right reforms, India has the potential to become the next engine of global growth, benefiting from major economic re-alignments caused by China's slowdown and the US diversifying its supply chains. Major corporations are already investing in India, recognizing its potential. However, India needs to overcome challenges such as high tariffs, infrastructure improvements, and regional cooperation to fully realize its manufacturing potential and attract foreign investment.
The Indian government bond market is set to receive significant foreign fund inflows and experience a lower yield curve after JPMorgan announces the inclusion of India's sovereign bonds in its emerging markets index, potentially resulting in inflows of $40-50 billion in the medium term and lower borrowing costs for the economy.
India's inclusion in the emerging market bond index is considered inevitable and comes at a good time for the country, as it will bring in stable dollar inflows and improve the health of the bond market.
India is expected to be one of the fastest-growing markets for JPMorgan in the Asia Pacific region next year, as companies look to diversify their supply chains beyond China.
India has the opportunity to exert influence over China by providing small loans to heavily indebted countries, which would give India a seat at the negotiating table and enable them to demand debt reductions from China.
JPMorgan predicts that India will become the world's third-largest economy by 2027 and reach a GDP of $7 trillion by 2030, with manufacturing and exports playing a significant role in its growth. The managing director also expresses optimism about China's economic trajectory and suggests potential opportunities in specific sectors. China is considering implementing a stimulus initiative and exploring the creation of a stock stabilization fund to boost investor confidence.
Foreign fund outflows from Indian equities, driven by a rise in U.S. bond yields and Middle East geopolitical tensions, have impacted commodities and caused uncertainty, with the possibility of a rebound in the market dependent on various factors such as the evolution of GDP growth and inflation, according to HSBC Global Research.