India's Economy Poised for Faster-Than-Expected 6.7% Growth in 2023-24 on Robust Credit Expansion and Bottom-of-Pyramid Banking Revolution

India's GDP growth forecast for 2023-24 has been upgraded to 6.3% by IMF and remains unchanged at 6.5% by RBI. Author believes India's economy could grow faster than expected at 6.7%.

4 reasons for author's optimism - good monsoon spatial distribution, continued capital expenditure by states and center, robust new company registrations depicting growth intentions, and continued traction in credit growth signaling formalization of economy.

Credit growth likely driven by new beneficiaries with no prior credit history joining the formal banking system. This explains the revolution at bottom of pyramid.

Growth in credit cards and unsecured loans not alarming as data shows household debt growth is moderating. Government schemes have enabled access to formal credit.

Healthy credit growth can propel economic momentum as credit growth to GDP ratio may end up around 1.7 times in 2023-24, up from 0.93 times in 2022-23. Sustained banking sector growth indicates possibility of prolonged economic growth period.