Inflation Follows 1970s Path but Stays Lower; Middle East Turmoil Risks Higher Prices

Inflation is following a similar path as 1966-1982, but absolute levels are lower now than 1970s-80s peak.

Inflation fell off in both periods and was followed by Middle East turmoil - oil embargo then, Iran conflict now.

Risks remain that inflation may not steadily decline, especially if Middle East conflict escalates.

Escalation could impact gas prices and broader inflation.

Inflation has remained over 3% for 4 months, more stubborn than expected.