Inverted Yield Curve Losing Reliability as Recession Predictor, Strategists Say

• Inverted yield curve no longer a reliable predictor of recessions according to Reuters poll of strategists • Yield curve has been inverted for over 20 months but recession hasn't happened • Demand for long-term bonds and Fed keeping short-term rates high are causes of inversion • Fed's large bond portfolio may be distorting yield curve pricing • Strategists expect short-term rates to fall less than long-term, making yield curve disinversion difficult