Gold Rises on Speculation Despite Breaking from Typical Drivers
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The historical relationship between gold prices and real yields has broken down recently, so real yields are not currently driving gold prices.
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Government deficit spending and debt levels, while high, are in line with past trends when adjusted for economic growth, so likely not fueling gold's rise.
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Current geopolitical tensions, while concerning, are not necessarily more severe than in past decades when gold prices were flat.
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Gold is not clearly predicting higher future inflation at this point, despite past reputation as an inflation hedge.
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Gold may be rising due to speculative mania rather than as a warning signal, as its recent correlations to assets like crypto and tech stocks suggest.