Economy Defies Predictions in 2023, Fuels Cautious Optimism for 2024
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The economy in 2023 defied expectations and performed better than predicted despite high inflation and recession fears. There's cautious optimism it could continue into 2024.
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Inflation cooled more than anticipated without large job losses. Wage growth outpaced inflation overall. The Fed plans rate cuts in 2024.
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Mortgages and stocks are rebounding with rates falling. The housing market and consumers may get some relief after a difficult period.
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Risks remain, including potential Fed policy mistakes, external shocks like oil price spikes, and the unusual nature of the current low inflation/low unemployment scenario.
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After a tough couple of years, some optimism could boost confidence and spending. We may know by mid-2024 if the soft landing is achieved or if recession hits.