JPMorgan Sees Limited Downside for Crypto Markets in the Near Term
JPMorgan predicts that the unwinding of long positions in Bitcoin futures suggests the end of a downward trend, leading to limited downside for crypto markets in the near term.
Posted 8/25/2023, 8:58:00 AM
coindesk.com
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Global stock markets and Wall Street futures are rising as traders await signals on interest rate plans from the Federal Reserve conference, with investors hoping that the Fed officials will signal an end to interest rate hikes despite concerns about inflation not being fully under control yet.
U.S. stock futures rise as Wall Street attempts to build momentum following positive sessions for Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500.
Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal predicts that the stock market will soon hit a bottom, with the S&P 500 entering oversold territory, and expects institutional buyers to step in and establish a market bottom; he also suggests that Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing bullish signs on certain indicators.
The recent downturn in the cryptocurrency market, marked by a 10% decline in total market capitalization and significant liquidations on futures contracts, can be attributed to various economic factors such as rising interest rates and inflation, as well as regulatory concerns and financial difficulties within the industry, with the future trajectory of the market being influenced by these factors.
In the latest episode of Market Talks, the future of BTC mining, the impact of the upcoming Bitcoin halving, and the ability for miners to hedge their operations with hash rate derivatives are discussed, with predictions that Bitcoin's volatility will decrease over time and the market will experience macro headwinds and potential new lows in the next six months.
Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to enter a rangebound phase until at least Q4 2023, according to market participant Filbfilb, who predicts that miners and speculation around the halving event will drive prices higher later in the year. However, macroeconomic risks, such as the Federal Reserve's policies, remain a key factor that could impact Bitcoin's performance.
Bitcoin's recent correction and regulatory news have caused a wave of selling, but analysts from JPMorgan believe that the sell-off may be nearing its end phase, with limited downside predicted for the crypto market in the near term.
JPMorgan Chase remains optimistic about the stock market despite recent dips, with limited downside projected for the crypto markets, and bullish outlooks for Telephone & Data Systems and HilleVax.
Stock futures are slightly higher as investors look ahead to economic data and the monthly jobs report, while tech companies Instacart, Klaviyo, and Arm file for IPOs, China Evergrande Group's shares plunge, and meme stock Bed Bath & Beyond continues to trade despite its bankruptcy filing.
Crypto services provider Matrixport suggests taking long positions in bitcoin with a tight stop loss below $25,800, as Treasury yields are expected to drop and push risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, higher. Market makers may also buy bitcoin to maintain a direction-neutral book, potentially accelerating price gains.
Stock futures are down as Wall Street prepares for a wave of economic data and concludes a challenging month for equities.
Bitcoin's price is closely linked to stock prices and has seen significant growth, outperforming Amazon over a 12-year period, according to Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone; however, he is skeptical about its move into the mainstream and warns of potential price declines when the masses invest. Other analysts speculate on Bitcoin's price, with predictions ranging from a dip to $23,500 to exceeding $30,000 by year-end. McGlone is known for identifying unique trends in Bitcoin, and JPMorgan suggests that the recent crypto asset selloffs are mostly over.
Long-term holders of Bitcoin are continuing to accumulate the cryptocurrency despite recent market volatility, indicating a bullish outlook for the future, according to analysts from Bitfinex. However, newer long-term holders who acquired their positions during the bear market are showing more unease and have exited their positions during price drops.
U.S. stock futures edge lower as investors analyze weaker job opening data and anticipate additional labor market figures, while Nvidia shares reach a record high and Bitcoin surges after a court ruling on an exchange-traded fund.
CME's Bitcoin futures market has become the second-largest trading platform, with open interest reaching $2.24 billion, as it remains unaffected by price drops and offers monthly cash-settled contracts that differ from perpetual contracts on crypto exchanges. However, the trading dynamics and pricing mechanism of CME's Bitcoin futures do not flawlessly mirror Bitcoin's price movements on crypto exchanges.
Stock futures rise as investors close out a month of losses for the three major stock indexes, with positive earnings reports from MongoDB and Dell Technologies boosting sentiment.
Traders will have a break from the stock market on Labor Day following positive economic data that suggests a slowing economy and potentially prevents the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates, while other markets such as commodities and bonds will be closed, and stock futures are expected to rise; additionally, the crypto trade remains active.
Bitcoin (BTC) futures trading using BTC as margin has increased to 33% from 20% since July, raising concerns about potential volatility due to liquidation cascades and a shortage of cash in the market.
Bitcoin is trading near the $26,000 level and uncertainty about its next move suggests a limited downside in the near term, with hopes for approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund by the SEC potentially providing support.
JPMorgan strategists are concerned about the complacency and high levels of confidence among US stock investors, as sentiment and positioning remain far from bearish despite potential risks.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are experiencing a decline as analysts predict further decreases ahead.
JPMorgan's quant chief, Marko Kolanovic, warns that a crisis is brewing in the financial markets due to high interest rates and rising geopolitical tensions, with a higher likelihood of a crisis over the next six to 12 months.
Leading US financial institution JPMorgan Chase & Co. warns that the recent weakening of the Israeli shekel may indicate long-term trends for the currency, citing political risk and a shift in foreign allocation by Israeli investors as contributing factors.
Bitcoin's weak performance and its potential "double top" structure raise concerns of more downside, with predictions of new local lows; however, there are indications that Bitcoin may experience a major shakeout before rebounding to "fair value" and the 200-week EMA near $25,600 may offer some optimism; debate ensues over the possibility of Bitcoin filling the $20,000 CME futures gap; liquidity levels on BTC/USD markets continue to increase, adding to bearish predictions; ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release on September 14 brings potential volatility to the market and may impact crypto market expectations.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warns that while the U.S. economy is currently strong, it would be a mistake to assume it will sustain long-term due to risks such as central bank actions, the Ukraine war, and unsustainable government spending.
Summary: Dow Jones futures, S&P 500 futures, and Nasdaq futures all rose overnight, while the stock market correction continued with heavy losses as the 10-year Treasury yields surged, leading to the S&P 500 undercutting its August lows and the Nasdaq and Dow Jones coming close to doing the same.