Summers: AI to Eventually Replace Almost All Jobs, But Productivity Impacts Will Take Time
• Larry Summers thinks AI will take longer than expected to impact productivity, but will eventually replace "almost all" human labor.
• He cites the "productivity J curve" - it takes time to realize gains from new technology.
• Autonomous vehicles show we tend to overestimate short-term AI impacts.
• Summers believes AI could be as transformative as the Industrial Revolution.
• He predicts AI will replace cognitive labor before emotional/interpersonal skills.