Recession Risk Rises, Markets Face Challenges Ahead
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Global economic expansion expected to end by mid-2025; recession risk rises through 2024. Inflation to remain sticky, keeping rates higher for longer.
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Equity outlook cautious for 2024 with lackluster earnings growth, geopolitical risks, and expensive valuations. S&P 500 target of 4,200 with downside bias.
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Fed rate cuts unlikely before late 2024. Other DM central banks to begin easing in 2H 2024 if soft landing scenario plays out.
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Brent crude to average $83/bbl in 2024 on solid supply-demand fundamentals. Gold to reach new nominal highs in 2024 on Fed cuts, falling yields.
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Dollar to remain elevated in 2024, limiting gains for EUR, GBP and JPY. EM macro issues dominated by U.S. growth and policy paths.