Marqeta: Done Deal (NASDAQ:MQ)
This article mentions Marqeta (NASDAQ: MQ) stock. The author gives a buy recommendation for Marqeta stock, stating that it is undervalued with decent upside potential.
The core argument of the article is that Marqeta's partnership renewal with its largest customer, Block (SQ), reduces the risk of losing a major customer and highlights the company's strong value proposition. The author also discusses Marqeta's Q2 results, including growth in total processing volume (TPV) and revenue.
Key information and data mentioned in the article include:
- Marqeta's partnership renewal with Block's Cash App program extends until June 2027.
- Marqeta's Q2 TPV grew 33% YoY and 7% QoQ.
- Revenue grew by 24% to $231 million in Q2.
- Gross profit was $85 million, growing by 8% YoY.
- Gross margin reached its lowest level ever at 37%.
- Marqeta operates a usage-based business model with two primary services: Managed by Marqeta (MxM) and Powered by Marqeta (PxM).
- Marqeta's gross profit take rate is at its lowest point at 0.16%.
- Marqeta turned adjusted EBITDA profitable with $1 million in Q2.
- Marqeta has a strong balance sheet with a cash position of $1.4 billion and no debt.
In terms of the outlook, the Cash App renewal is expected to have a significant impact on Marqeta's financials, causing a decline in net revenue and gross profit. The author expects Q3 to be challenging for the company but anticipates improvement in Q4 and beyond. The outlook for FY2023 includes a decline in revenue and a low to mid-single-digit negative adjusted EBITDA margin.
The article concludes with a discussion on Marqeta's valuation, stating that the stock is undervalued based on historical multiples and the author's discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation. However, the author highlights the fundamental uncertainty surrounding the company's financials and suggests caution in considering the investment due to the potential impact of the Cash App renewal.
Overall, the author recommends buying Marqeta stock but acknowledges the risks associated with competition, concentration, and fundamental uncertainty.