Topics

Posted 9/12/2023, 10:35:00 AM

ECB Rate Hike Bets Rise Ahead of Key Meeting; German Sentiment Improves Slightly but Eurozone Weakness Persists

Money markets increase bets on further ECB rate hike, now see 45% chance of 25bps hike at this week's meeting
Investors see over 80% chance of ECB move by year-end, but no further tightening expected afterwards
German investor sentiment unexpectedly improved in September, but euro area weakness remains
Oil price concerns and quantitative tightening fears weigh on peripheral bonds
Upcoming US CPI data and potential ECB hike could lift short-end rates and flatten yield curve

nasdaq.com

Relevant topic timeline:

8/21/2023

Stocks, yields rise as traders balance China, oil supply

European stocks rebounded and government bond yields rose again as oil prices firmed, despite smaller rate cuts by China than investors had expected, with hopes remaining for further stimulus.

8/24/2023

10-year Treasury yield inches up as investors await Jackson Hole meeting

U.S. Treasury yields were mixed as investors await signals on monetary policy from central bankers at the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting.

8/25/2023

The Bond Market And The Fed May Be Heading For An Epic Showdown

The Fed and bond market may be headed for a clash as they have differing views on whether interest rates are sufficiently restrictive to cool the economy and bring inflation back to target.

8/24/2023

The ECB’s rate-hike dilemma as eurozone business activity falls

The European Central Bank (ECB) faces a complex decision on whether to continue raising interest rates in September as eurozone businesses experience declines in outputs and new orders, with some experts suggesting a pause in rate hikes to ease pressure on the economy.

9/1/2023

Euro gains, euro zone bond yields drop as U.S. unemployment rate rises By Reuters

The euro rose against the dollar and euro zone bond yields fell after US unemployment rate increased, suggesting the Federal Reserve may be done with interest rate hikes.

9/14/2023

European Markets Cautious Ahead of ECB Decision; US Inflation Hotter Than Expected

European markets are expected to have a mixed open as investors await the European Central Bank's rate decision, while US inflation data leads to slightly lower stock market closures.

9/14/2023

ECB Raises Rates to 4% But Signals End to Hiking Cycle as Growth Slows

Euro zone bonds and stocks rally as traders maintain their bets on the European Central Bank cutting interest rates next year amid concerns over economic growth.

9/14/2023

ECB Raises Interest Rates to 4% in Latest Move to Combat High Inflation

The European Central Bank (ECB) has raised interest rates to a record high of 4% in an attempt to combat rising inflation, but suggests that this increase could be the last for the time being. The ECB expects inflation to fall in the coming years, but acknowledges that higher rates have impacted economic growth projections for the eurozone.

9/26/2023

Rising Rates and Inflation Fears Send Bond Yields Soaring, Tech Stocks Plunging

Government bond yields are spiking in the US, Europe, and the UK due to investors realizing that central bank interest rates may remain high for an extended period, and concerns over inflation and supply shortages caused by the retirement of baby boomers.

10/4/2023

ECB Navigates Slowing Eurozone Economy and High Inflation with Further Rate Hikes Expected

The euro area is experiencing stagnated economic activity and weakening growth, leading the European Central Bank (ECB) to adjust its monetary policy by raising interest rates to combat inflation; however, uncertainties remain regarding the transmission of monetary policy and potential risks to economic growth.

10/5/2023

Treasury Yields Decline as Jobless Claims Rise and Trade Deficit Shrinks; Markets Eye Friday Jobs Report

Treasury yields were mixed to slightly lower as the 10-year rate slipped from its 16-year high after U.S. jobless claims inched up, while the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for September is expected to determine the next major move in bonds.

10/8/2023

ECB Chief Defends Rate Hikes But Sees Recession Risks; Pushes Climate Action

The European Central Bank (ECB) has raised its key interest rates for the tenth consecutive time in response to a series of crises and the need for price stability, although the rise has caused concerns about the level of interest rates and their impact on growth; ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasizes the need to make inflation projections more robust and to communicate effectively with the public to counter misinformation.

Topics

Posted 9/12/2023, 10:35:00 AM

ECB Rate Hike Bets Rise Ahead of Key Meeting; German Sentiment Improves Slightly but Eurozone Weakness Persists

Money markets increase bets on further ECB rate hike, now see 45% chance of 25bps hike at this week's meeting
Investors see over 80% chance of ECB move by year-end, but no further tightening expected afterwards
German investor sentiment unexpectedly improved in September, but euro area weakness remains
Oil price concerns and quantitative tightening fears weigh on peripheral bonds
Upcoming US CPI data and potential ECB hike could lift short-end rates and flatten yield curve

nasdaq.com

Relevant topic timeline:

8/21/2023

Stocks, yields rise as traders balance China, oil supply

European stocks rebounded and government bond yields rose again as oil prices firmed, despite smaller rate cuts by China than investors had expected, with hopes remaining for further stimulus.

8/24/2023

10-year Treasury yield inches up as investors await Jackson Hole meeting

U.S. Treasury yields were mixed as investors await signals on monetary policy from central bankers at the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting.

8/25/2023

The Bond Market And The Fed May Be Heading For An Epic Showdown

The Fed and bond market may be headed for a clash as they have differing views on whether interest rates are sufficiently restrictive to cool the economy and bring inflation back to target.

8/24/2023

The ECB’s rate-hike dilemma as eurozone business activity falls

9/1/2023

Euro gains, euro zone bond yields drop as U.S. unemployment rate rises By Reuters

The euro rose against the dollar and euro zone bond yields fell after US unemployment rate increased, suggesting the Federal Reserve may be done with interest rate hikes.

9/14/2023

European Markets Cautious Ahead of ECB Decision; US Inflation Hotter Than Expected

European markets are expected to have a mixed open as investors await the European Central Bank's rate decision, while US inflation data leads to slightly lower stock market closures.

9/14/2023

ECB Raises Rates to 4% But Signals End to Hiking Cycle as Growth Slows

Euro zone bonds and stocks rally as traders maintain their bets on the European Central Bank cutting interest rates next year amid concerns over economic growth.

9/14/2023

ECB Raises Interest Rates to 4% in Latest Move to Combat High Inflation

9/26/2023

Rising Rates and Inflation Fears Send Bond Yields Soaring, Tech Stocks Plunging

10/4/2023

ECB Navigates Slowing Eurozone Economy and High Inflation with Further Rate Hikes Expected

10/5/2023

Treasury Yields Decline as Jobless Claims Rise and Trade Deficit Shrinks; Markets Eye Friday Jobs Report

10/8/2023

ECB Chief Defends Rate Hikes But Sees Recession Risks; Pushes Climate Action